Malibu, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS66 KLOX 241811
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1011 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...24/1010 AM.

Unsettled weather with periods of rain is expected at times for
southwest California into mid next week. Fairly widespread
light to moderate rain is possible late Monday through Tuesday,
focused across the Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...24/1009 AM.

***UPDATE***

No big changes in the forecast at least for the next 24 hours or
so. Today mostly dry with increasing chances of rain overnight
tonight north of Pt Conception. Could see some heavier rain at
times Monday night into Tuesday morning especially northwest SLO
County as the next slug of rain associated with a weak AR. Models
even picking up some instability there as well with a slight
chance of thunderstorms near the coast and over the adjacent
coastal waters. However, the rain axis remains mostly north of
Ventura until Monday night and Tuesday, and even then scattered in
nature and very light.

***From Previous Discussion***

At this time, most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties are likely
to see under an inch of rain, with much of Los Angeles County
under 0.5 inches. 1 to 3 inches are expected across Santa Barbara
and San Luis Obispo Counties, with 4+ inches for the Santa Lucia
Mountains. Rainfall rates are favored to be low-to- moderate, thus
no widespread flooding impacts are anticipated. The highest rates
are expected for the coastal upslope areas along the Central
Coast, and this is the area most likely to see minor flooding
impacts. There is some level of uncertainty in the the exact
location of higher rainfall, thus there remains a small potential
(10 percent) of rainfall totals double that of forecast for
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.

There are no significant snow or thunderstorms concerns with this
rather warm system. However some thunderstorm activity is
possible Monday morning for the coastal waters along Central
Coast.

The storm systems and cloud coverage will keep temperatures well
below normal for the next few days. There is the chance for a few
hours of sunshine today, followed by cloudy and wet conditions
Monday and Tuesday. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected
north of Point Conception Monday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...24/241 AM.

Confidence remains on the low end for Wednesday into next weekend,
as a result of uncertainty in the trajectory of a weak storm
system that may impact the region. There is about a 20-40 percent
chance of showers Wednesday, chances will be highest in the
morning for Los Angeles County. Thanksgiving Day there is around
a 10 percent chance of showers, followed by around a 20 percent
chance of showers Friday into Saturday. In addition, there is
still the potential for light offshore flow Thursday into the
weekend, which would lead to overall warming and drying trends.
Temperatures are favored to gradually warm each day, with higher
chances for sunshine than earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1804Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Low confidence in nearly all TAFs late this morning. There were
many individual cloud layers across the region, and conds may vary
frequently at TAF site late this morning. In general, there will
be many coastal airfields plus KPRB with IFR to VLIFR conds, with
conds improving to VFR this afternoon. The rest of the airfields
are expected to have VFR conds thru this afternoon.

Another frontal system will cause an increase in clouds in
northern areas tonight, with MVFR/IFR cigs returning late, and a
chance of rain by morning. S of Pt. Conception, a stratus or
stratocu field is expected to develop, bringing MVFR to IFR and
even some LIFR cigs/vsbys to coastal airfields by late evening
and persisting into Mon morning. KBUR and KVNY should remain VFR
tonight into Mon morning. The timing of the low clouds and
between flight cats may vary +/- 1-3 hours.

High confidence KPMD and KWJF will remain VFR thru Mon morning.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions will bounce
frequently between flight categories thru 19Z. There is a 30%
chance that cigs will not become VFR until at least 21Z. Conds are
expected to again vary widely tonight with MVFR conds developing
around 03Z then lowering to IFR/LIFR by 08Z. Conds should improve
to MVFR by 18z and VFR by 20Z Mon. There is great uncertainty in
the timing of flight cat changes which could be off +/- 1-3
hours.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. VFR conds are expected
thru the TAF period, however there is still a 20-30% chance of
MVFR cigs after 08Z tonight and into Mon morning.

&&

.MARINE...24/824 AM.

In the Outer Waters, high confidence in the forecast. Winds and
seas will be below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels thru tonight.
For Mon and Mon night, there is a 60% chance of SCA level SE-S
winds in the northern zones (PZZ670/673), and a 40% chance in the
southern zone (PZZ676). SCA conds are not expected Tue-Thu night.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the forecast. There is a 60% chance of SCA level SE-S winds Mon
afternoon into Mon night. Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA levels Tue thru Thu night.

For the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, high confidence that
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels thru Thu night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...DB/Sirard
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox